28 October, 2008

क्या शेयर बाज़ार सच में अस्थायी रूप से बंद होने जा रहे हैं?

7 सितम्बर, 2006 को, न्यूयॉर्क विश्वविद्यालय में एक अर्थशास्त्र का प्रोफेसर, अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष में अर्थशास्त्रियों के सामने खड़ा था और उसने घोषणा की, कि आने वाले महीनों और वर्षों में, संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका के लिए, जीवन-में-एक-बार वाले अंदाज़ में, तेजी से गिरावट की संभावना होगी और अंततः एक गहरी मंदी।

उनका कहना है कि (Dow) को अभी भी नीचे जाने के लिए एक लंबा रास्ता तय करना है. यह 7,500, 6,000, 5,000? लेकिन मुझे लगता है कि हमें पता नहीं है। मुद्रास्फीति के समायोजन के लिए पाँच साल में
Dow आज जहाँ है, वहाँ से नीचे होने जा रहा है। लंदन में पिछले गुरुवार, उन्होंने कहा कि बचाव के लिए शेयर बाज़ारों को जल्दी ही लंबे समय, एक सप्ताह के लिए बंद करना पड़ सकता है(क्या हुआ? अगले दिन न्यूयॉर्क और मॉस्को में ट्रेडिंग बंद हो गयी थी)

अभी तक इन सभी भविष्यवाणियों का कुछ सच सामने आया है। कुछ लोग अब हँस रहे हैं।

इनके साथ ही उच्च पदस्थ, करीब 10 लोगों ने इस मंदी को आते देखा था।

यदि उत्कंठा बढ़ रही हो तो और पढ़िये

Dr. Doom
Published: August 15, 2008
On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing.

In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession.

He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt.

Dr. Doom forecasts depression
Published: October 27, 2008
Peter D. Schiff, an extreme bear who correctly foresaw the U.S. stock-market slide, the home mortgage meltdown and the credit crunch, still sees plenty of doom and gloom ahead.

I think [the Dow] still has a long way to go down. Is it 7,500, 6,000, 5,000? I don't know, but I don't think we're there yet.
Adjusted for inflation, I think in five years the Dow is going to be below where it is today.

Stock markets may soon have to shut as long as a week
Published: Oct 27, 2008
In London last Thursday, he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will go bust and stock markets may soon have to shut – perhaps for as long as a week – in order to stem the panic selling now sweeping the world.
What happened? The next day trading was briefly stopped in New York and Moscow.

Nouriel Roubini predicted a global financial meltdown
Published: Oct 28, 2008
While the economic sun was shining, most other economists scoffed at Roubini and his predictions of imminent disaster. They dismissed his warnings that the sub-prime mortgage disaster would trigger a financial meltdown.

They could not quite believe his view that the US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would collapse, and that the investment banks would be crushed as the world headed for a long recession.

Yet all these predictions and more came true. Few are laughing now
Read: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24561416-30538,00.html

'Dr. Doom' says markets may face temporary closures
Published: October 23, 2008
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted much of the financial catastrophe that has unfolded worldwide over the last year, now says governments may have to temporarily close markets as a way to try to halt another massive wave of selling.

10 people, who saw it coming
Published: October 26, 2008
IT'S hard to forecast the future, especially in the volatile world of stockmarkets. Which is why when it crashed, it left many people in shock and panic. Surely no one could have predicted the financial meltdown of recent weeks?

Well, actually, they did. Here are 10 people, according to The Times, who saw it coming

1 comment:

mahesh said...

ज्ञान जी तरह-तरह की अफवाहों और हकीकतों की सुनामी में डूबते-तैरते आमजन यह समझ ही नहीं पा रहे हैं कि इस दौर से निकला कैसे जाए। आपका ज्ञान निश्चित ही उनके काम आएगा।
दीपावली की शुभकामनाएं!